SPX Monitoring Purposes: Long SPX 6/21/23 at 4365.69; sold 7/21/23 4536.34=gain 3.91%.
Long SPX on 2/6/23 at 4110.98: Sold 6/16/23 at 4409.59 = gain of 7.26%. Gain since 12/20/22=17.68%.
Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
SPY has an open gap near 454, which is close to the highs of August 2 and 4th, and both of those highs had relative high volume and imply heavy resistance. This condition would suggest the high of July 27 near 460 will not be tested. Friday’s volume (August 4) was high, and today trading tested Friday’s low on lighter volume, suggesting support. We also tested yesterday’s gap low on higher volume, suggesting yesterday’s low may be tested again. Friday’s close produced a 1.79 TRIN and -414 TICK, which is a bullish combination and suggests a low will form from as early as the readings were recorded to as late as two days later, which would be today (we are starting to see third day out could produce a low, which would be Wednesday). We could see a “back and forth” for a couple of days before the 454 SPY gap level may be tested. Options expiration week is next week, which has a bullish bias; a bullish setup could be triggered this week for a rally into option expiration week.
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We updated this chart from yesterday and said, “Noted in pink are the times when VIX made higher lows as SPY made higher highs, which is a bearish divergence. The current divergence could produce a pullback of 7% to 9% from its high. Strong support lies near 4200 SPX range.” Added to the above; it looks as though market may bounce first before another decline, which may take market to the 4200 SPX support.
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